| Year | Data Points | MAD | Chi-Squared | K-S Statistic | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2020 | 987 | 0.008 | 5.21 (p = 0.734) | 0.031 | Acceptable |
| FY 2021 | 1,043 | 0.011 | 8.47 (p = 0.389) | 0.038 | Acceptable |
| FY 2022 | 1,128 | 0.013 | 11.62 (p = 0.169) | 0.044 | Acceptable |
| FY 2023 | 1,189 | 0.024 | 22.31 (p = 0.004) | 0.072 | Nonconforming |
| FY 2024 | 1,247 | 0.018 | 16.08 (p = 0.041) | 0.058 | Marginal |
The five-year time-series analysis reveals a clear deterioration trend in Benford's Law conformity for Vaxart's financial disclosures. From FY 2020 through FY 2022, the MAD values ranged from 0.008 to 0.013, all well within the acceptable conformity range. However, FY 2023 marked a sharp departure with a MAD of 0.024, exceeding the 0.022 nonconformity threshold, accompanied by a chi-squared p-value of 0.004 indicating statistically significant deviation from expected frequencies.
FY 2024 shows partial improvement to a MAD of 0.018, retreating from nonconforming to marginally acceptable. This pattern is consistent with either (a) a one-time event in FY 2023 that distorted digit distribution, such as a major acquisition, licensing deal, or restructuring, with partial normalization in FY 2024; or (b) an evolving change in disclosure or estimation practices that began in FY 2023 and continues at a moderated level.
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics corroborate the MAD trend, rising from 0.031 in FY 2020 to 0.072 in FY 2023 before partially receding to 0.058 in FY 2024. Notably, the number of data points has increased steadily from 987 to 1,247 over the five-year window, ruling out small-sample artifacts as an explanation for the nonconformity. Analysts should investigate what specific financial events or disclosure changes occurred in FY 2023 that could account for the sharp deviation.