| Test | Result | Interpretation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benford's Law (MAD) | 0.018 | First-digit distribution marginally conforms to expected frequencies | Marginal |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.04 | Score falls in grey zone between manipulation unlikely and likely thresholds | Grey Zone |
| Vector Variation Score | 0.14 | Financial statement composition changes within normal range | Pass |
| Time-Series Conformity | 3 of 5 yrs | Three of five historical years show acceptable digit conformity | Marginal |
| Red Flag Triggers | 3 flags | One high-severity and two medium-severity indicators triggered | Flagged |
The forensic analysis of Vaxart, Inc.'s FY 2024 disclosures reveals a pattern of moderate concern across multiple independent tests. The Benford's Law analysis shows a mean absolute deviation of 0.018, placing the company's first-digit distribution at the boundary between conforming and nonconforming. Digits 1 and 5 exhibit statistically significant deviations from expected Benford frequencies, which may indicate selective rounding or estimation clustering in reported figures.
The Beneish M-Score of -2.04 falls within the grey zone, between the -2.22 threshold (below which manipulation is unlikely) and the -1.78 threshold (above which manipulation is likely). The Days Sales in Receivables Index and the Gross Margin Index are the primary contributors driving the score upward. While no single indicator is conclusive, the convergence of a marginally acceptable Benford result, a grey-zone M-Score, and three triggered red flags suggests that Vaxart's financial disclosures merit heightened scrutiny during the review process.
The Vector Variation Score of 0.14 is the sole clearly passing result, indicating that the overall composition of Vaxart's financial statements has not shifted dramatically year-over-year. This suggests that the areas of concern are concentrated in specific line items rather than reflecting a broad restructuring of reported financials.