Vaxart, Inc.

CIK 0000072444 · FY 2024 · Forensic Intelligence
Forensic
Composite Score
38 / 100
Moderate risk
Flags Triggered
3
of 12 monitored
Highest Severity
High
Receivables growth
Period
FY 2024
vs. FY 2023 baseline

Ratio Analysis

Ratio Current Prior Change % Status
Receivables / Revenue 0.387 0.264 +46.6% FLAG
Gross Margin 0.412 0.541 -23.8% FLAG
Accruals / Assets 0.042 0.031 +35.5% WATCH
SGA / Revenue 0.284 0.277 +2.5% OK
Depreciation Rate 0.118 0.121 -2.5% OK
Leverage (D/E) 0.483 0.459 +5.2% OK
Cash Burn Rate 14.2 mo 18.7 mo -24.1% FLAG
R&D / OpEx 0.712 0.698 +2.0% OK
Current Ratio 3.41 4.12 -17.2% WATCH
Asset Turnover 0.187 0.194 -3.6% OK

Triggered Red Flags

High Receivables Outpacing Revenue Growth Revenue Recognition

Accounts receivable grew 46.6% year-over-year while revenue increased only 19.7%. The receivables-to-revenue ratio expanded from 0.264 to 0.387, driving a Days Sales in Receivables Index (DSRI) of 1.465. This divergence may indicate aggressive revenue recognition, channel-loading, or uncollectible milestone receivables being carried on the balance sheet.

In Vaxart's disclosures, the company recognized $12.4M in collaboration revenue under ASC 606, of which $4.8M remained outstanding at year-end. The prior year had $2.1M outstanding from $10.4M recognized. The concentration of uncollected revenue in a single collaboration partner represents a disclosure the company should address more explicitly.

Suggested Question
"Can you walk us through the timing of milestone recognition under your collaboration agreements? Specifically, what percentage of FY 2024 collaboration revenue relates to milestones that were achieved but not yet invoiced at year-end, versus milestones invoiced but not yet collected?"
Medium Gross Margin Erosion Profitability

Gross margin contracted from 54.1% to 41.2%, a decline of 12.9 percentage points. The Gross Margin Index (GMI) of 1.312 is the second-largest contributor to the elevated M-Score. While margin volatility is common for clinical-stage biotechs with lumpy collaboration revenue, the magnitude of this decline warrants examination of whether cost allocation between COGS and R&D has shifted.

The company's disclosures describe "cost of revenue related to collaboration agreements" which increased from $4.8M to $7.9M. The composition of these costs and whether they include any reclassified R&D expenses should be verified against the collaboration agreement terms disclosed in the filing exhibits.

Suggested Question
"What drove the increase in cost of collaboration revenue from $4.8M to $7.9M? Were any costs previously classified as R&D expense reclassified to cost of revenue in FY 2024, and if so, what was the basis for the reclassification?"
Medium Accelerating Cash Burn Liquidity

Cash runway decreased from 18.7 months to 14.2 months based on trailing operating cash outflows. While still above the 12-month going-concern threshold, the acceleration in burn rate (24.1% reduction in runway) diverges from the company's disclosure that it has "sufficient capital to fund operations through 2026." The gap between disclosed runway and computed runway should be reconciled.

The company's liquidity disclosures reference $89.2M in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, but the quarterly cash consumption trend shows increasing outflows: Q1 $14.1M, Q2 $15.8M, Q3 $16.4M, Q4 $17.2M. Extrapolating Q4 rates yields approximately 13 months of runway, not the 24+ months implied by the disclosure narrative.

Suggested Question
"Your disclosure states sufficient capital through 2026, but trailing quarterly cash burn of $17.2M implies approximately 13 months of runway. Does the 2026 projection assume specific inflows from collaboration milestones or financing, and if so, what is the probability-weighted basis for including those inflows in the going-concern assessment?"

Horizontal Analysis — Key Line Items (FY 2022 – FY 2024)

▼ Expanded
Line Item FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 CAGR Flag
Total Revenue $8.1M $10.4M $12.4M 23.7%
Accounts Receivable $1.4M $2.7M $4.8M 85.2% FLAG
Cost of Revenue $3.2M $4.8M $7.9M 57.1% WATCH
R&D Expense $42.1M $45.7M $48.3M 7.1%
SGA Expense $17.8M $19.2M $19.8M 5.5%
Operating Cash Flow ($48.7M) ($52.3M) ($63.5M) 14.2% WATCH
Cash & Investments $142.6M $107.4M $89.2M -20.9% WATCH
Total Assets $198.4M $172.1M $153.8M -11.9%

Recommended Source Documents

SEC Filing
10-K Annual Report (FY 2024)
Primary source. Review Note 2 (Revenue Recognition), Note 11 (Collaboration Agreements), and MD&A Liquidity section.
SEC Filing
10-K Annual Report (FY 2023)
Baseline comparison. Cross-reference prior period receivables, cost allocation, and going-concern language.
Exhibit
Collaboration Agreement (Ex. 10.1)
Verify milestone payment terms, recognition triggers, and invoicing schedules against recognized revenue.
SEC Filing
DEF 14A Proxy Statement
Review executive compensation tied to revenue milestones or profitability targets that could create incentives.
External
Auditor Reports & Letters
Check for emphasis-of-matter paragraphs, critical audit matters related to revenue recognition or going concern.
Industry Data
Peer Comparison (SIC 2836)
Benchmark receivables/revenue ratio and cash burn rate against clinical-stage biotech peers.