Vaxart, Inc.

CIK 0000072444 · FY 2024 · Forensic Intelligence
Forensic
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Grey Zone — M-Score -2.04

The Beneish M-Score falls between the -2.22 (unlikely) and -1.78 (likely) manipulation thresholds. Further investigation recommended.

M-Score
-2.04
Grey Zone
Unlikely Threshold
-2.22
Below = Unlikely
Likely Threshold
-1.78
Above = Likely
Top Contributor
DSRI
Days Sales Receivables

Score Position

Manipulation Unlikely Grey Zone Manipulation Likely
← < -2.22
-2.22 to -1.78
> -1.78 →
-2.04
-3.50 -2.22 -1.78 0.00

Component Breakdown

Component Description Value Weight Contribution Impact
DSRI Days Sales in Receivables Index 1.465 0.920 1.348 High
GMI Gross Margin Index 1.312 0.528 0.693 High
AQI Asset Quality Index 1.084 0.404 0.438 Medium
SGI Sales Growth Index 1.197 0.892 1.068 Medium
DEPI Depreciation Index 0.987 0.115 0.114 Low
SGAI SGA Expense Index 1.024 0.172 0.176 Low
TATA Total Accruals to Total Assets 0.042 4.679 0.197 Medium
LVGI Leverage Index 1.051 -0.327 -0.344 Low

Interpretation

The Beneish M-Score of -2.04 places Vaxart, Inc. in the grey zone of the eight-variable model. This score is calculated as M = -4.84 + 0.920(DSRI) + 0.528(GMI) + 0.404(AQI) + 0.892(SGI) + 0.115(DEPI) - 0.172(SGAI) + 4.679(TATA) - 0.327(LVGI), using the coefficients established in Beneish (1999).

The two primary drivers of the elevated score are the Days Sales in Receivables Index (DSRI = 1.465) and the Gross Margin Index (GMI = 1.312). A DSRI substantially above 1.0 indicates that receivables are growing faster than revenue, which can reflect aggressive revenue recognition, channel stuffing, or simply deteriorating collection efficiency. For a pharmaceutical company like Vaxart, this may correlate with milestone receivables from licensing arrangements that have not yet been collected.

The elevated Gross Margin Index suggests margin erosion year-over-year, which Beneish associates with increased motivation to manipulate earnings. For a clinical-stage biotech, gross margin volatility is common and may reflect the lumpy nature of collaboration revenue rather than manipulation. However, the combination with elevated DSRI warrants examination of whether revenue recognition timing has been optimized to meet analyst expectations or covenant requirements.